The Riverside Market Reports
cHEMICAL REPORT, FEBRUARY 2025 TEST
December was a relatively quiet month due partly to the holiday season but also fitting the usual historical trend where volumes typically decline after November as the season draws to a close and we expect volumes to remain relatively subdued until March when the new crop will enter the market. Regarding the new crop, approximately 85% of the soybean crop area has now been sown which according to the latest estimates is around 18.4 million hectares—200,000 hectares less than last year. In-line with the recent decline in the Western CPP rates, vegetable oil freight rates have also softened, with one January vessel fixed at $59 PMT for 40,000 mts (2/2) into India, down from the mid/high $60’s a month earlier. Currently, the majority of volumes are still originating from Argentina, where river water levels have shown slight improvement and forecasts for Brazil's new crop remain optimistic, driven by favorable weather conditions there. Whether this translates into increased export volumes is uncertain, as a growing share of production is being diverted to meet domestic Brazilian biofuel mandates. Looking ahead, January shipments from South America are largely finalized and attention now on stems for first half of February dates, particularly for cargoes bound for India.
December was a relatively quiet month due partly to the holiday season but also fitting the usual historical trend where volumes typically decline after November as the season draws to a close and we expect volumes to remain relatively subdued until March when the new crop will enter the market. Regarding the new crop, approximately 85% of the soybean crop area has now been sown which according to the latest estimates is around 18.4 million hectares—200,000 hectares less than last year. In-line with the recent decline in the Western CPP rates, vegetable oil freight rates have also softened, with one January vessel fixed at $59 PMT for 40,000 mts (2/2) into India, down from the mid/high $60’s a month earlier. Currently, the majority of volumes are still originating from Argentina, where river water levels have shown slight improvement and forecasts for Brazil's new crop remain optimistic, driven by favorable weather conditions there. Whether this translates into increased export volumes is uncertain, as a growing share of production is being diverted to meet domestic Brazilian biofuel mandates. Looking ahead, January shipments from South America are largely finalized and attention now on stems for first half of February dates, particularly for cargoes bound for India.
Palm & Veg Report, FEBRUARY 2025
Global shipping markets commenced the new trading year in mixed territory as jitters over the global economy persist. Poor export data continues to subdue market sentiment but despite the slump in overall activity most trade lanes look like they may have found a new floor and freight rates are no longer declining at the pace they were at the end of last year. The Asian CPP and palm markets failed to see any pre-Chinese New Year rush this year so we will have to see now that annual festivities have subsided what happens to volumes and rates next. Global markets seem to have greeted Donald Trump’s presidency with apprehension as his ambitious plans for relations and tariffs start to gain traction and the jury is still out as to how or where his new policies will affect the energy and shipping markets moving forward. The Houthi rebels signalled that they will avoid striking vessels in the Red Sea region, except for those with Israeli interests which could, potentially, be huge news for the shipping industry. That said, we don’t expect to see many ship owners routing their vessels via the Suez over the short term as many will want to ensure that longer term peace is fully restored in that region first. It has certainly not been a boring start to the year which serves as a reminder that no one really has much of a clue what lies ahead.
Global shipping markets commenced the new trading year in mixed territory as jitters over the global economy persist. Poor export data continues to subdue market sentiment but despite the slump in overall activity most trade lanes look like they may have found a new floor and freight rates are no longer declining at the pace they were at the end of last year. The Asian CPP and palm markets failed to see any pre-Chinese New Year rush this year so we will have to see now that annual festivities have subsided what happens to volumes and rates next. Global markets seem to have greeted Donald Trump’s presidency with apprehension as his ambitious plans for relations and tariffs start to gain traction and the jury is still out as to how or where his new policies will affect the energy and shipping markets moving forward. The Houthi rebels signalled that they will avoid striking vessels in the Red Sea region, except for those with Israeli interests which could, potentially, be huge news for the shipping industry. That said, we don’t expect to see many ship owners routing their vessels via the Suez over the short term as many will want to ensure that longer term peace is fully restored in that region first. It has certainly not been a boring start to the year which serves as a reminder that no one really has much of a clue what lies ahead.